美元熊市与美股泡沫
BoA's Hartnett analysis points out that the dollar bear market and the U.S. stock bubble are key themes for future investments. The U.S. government needs to experience 25/26 years of prosperity to reverse the trends of debt and deficits. Global investors are avoiding long-term government debt and turning to overvalued stocks and credit bonds. The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index is 22.5 times, the static price-to-earnings ratio is 27.4 times, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the MSCI index is 14.7 times, and the spread of U.S. IG A+ credit bonds is 64 basis points
BoA's Hartnett on the analysis of the dollar bear market and the US stock bubble/recession:
The US government needs 25/26 years of prosperity and bubbles, which is the simplest way to reverse the trend of US debt and deficits. This is why a long-term dollar bear market is a clear investment theme heading into 2026, and why global investors continue to avoid long-term government debt in favor of historically expensive stocks and credit bonds.
The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 22.5 times... the 95th percentile since 1988,
The static price-to-earnings ratio is 27.4 times... the 98th percentile since 1900,
The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the MSCI index (excluding the US) is 14.7 times... the 92nd percentile since 2006,
The spread of US IG A+ credit bonds is 64 basis points... the 98th percentile over the past 30 years.
