The fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the next 14 trading days

In the next 14 trading days, employment reports, key inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced one after another. As investors wrap up their summer vacations, these events will set the tone for their investment decisions. Currently, the stock market seems to be at a crossroads: the S&P 500 index has just recorded its weakest monthly gain since March and is about to enter the historically worst-performing month of September. Meanwhile, market volatility has disappeared. Since the end of June, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has only once breached the critical 20-point mark. The S&P 500 index has gone 91 trading days without a single-day drop of 2%, marking the longest streak since July 2024. The index reached a historic high of 6501.58 points on August 28, having risen 30% since the low on April 8, with a year-to-date increase of 9.8%