Trump To Huddle With Members Of Congress Even As Polymarket, Kalshi Bettors Put Government Shutdown Odds At 60%

Benzinga
2025.09.29 03:30
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Prediction markets indicate a 60% chance of a federal government shutdown as President Trump meets with Congress members. Over $2 million has been wagered on this outcome, with bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi predicting a shutdown by Oct. 1. If Congress fails to pass necessary funding, non-essential government functions will cease, affecting federal workers' pay. Schumer has criticized Trump, labeling the situation a "Trump shutdown." The potential shutdown could lead to economic repercussions, including reduced consumer spending and delayed government investments.

Prediction markets indicated a strong possibility that the federal government would be shut down this week as President Donald Trump prepares to meet key members of Congress on Monday.

Punters Wager On Shutdown

Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket priced in a 60% chance of a government shutdown by Oct. 1. Just the day before, the odds were at 70%.

More than $2 million has been wagered on the bet. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by Oct. 1.

Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. Polymarket is currently inaccessible to U.S. residents, but it is expected to start operations in the near future.

Similarly, bettors on the federally regulated prediction platform Kalshi saw a 58% chance of a government shutdown by Wednesday.

Trump’s Meeting with Congress Members

The bets and predictions come ahead of a reported meeting between key Congress members, including the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Trump in the Oval Office.

If Congress fails to pass a continuing resolution or a full-year appropriations bill, non-essential government functions will halt. All federal workers, both furloughed and those still working, will not receive payment until the government reopens.

If the shutdown lasts longer than a month, the likelihood of wider economic ripple effects increases, including weaker consumer spending due to missed paychecks and postponed government investments.

Schumer recently blamed Trump for the impending shutdown, calling it a "Trump shutdown" and accusing him of weak leadership. Trump canceled a meeting with Schumer and Jeffries earlier this week.

  • Donald Trump’s Looming Shutdown Could Trigger Mass Layoffs, Slash Regulations and Deploy Troops

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