U.S. Power Project Reserves: Concentrated Photovoltaic and Wind Power in the Next Two Years, Surge in Future Plans for Natural Gas and Energy Storage
Photovoltaic and wind energy projects are concentrated on being put into production and connected to the grid in the next two years. In just these two years, the planned photovoltaic projects account for 94% and 99% of Goldman Sachs' forecasted new capacity, respectively. The long-term planning for natural gas and energy storage, specifically for the years 2028-2030, shows a year-on-year surge of 127% and 60% in capacity
Against the backdrop of a surge in AI-driven electricity demand, the energy structure in the United States is undergoing profound changes. In the short term, renewable energy projects are booming, while long-term natural gas and energy storage plans show astonishing growth. However, all of this faces a significant real-world constraint: labor.
According to the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest analysis report based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that by September 2025, the U.S. is expected to add approximately 32 gigawatts (GW) of new installed power generation capacity within the year, primarily contributed by 19 GW of solar energy and 11 GW of battery storage, achieving 54% of Goldman Sachs' annual forecast, in line with historical seasonal patterns.
In the future project reserves, the total capacity of planned solar projects reaches a historic high of 122 GW, while the planned capacities for natural gas and energy storage have surged by 127% and 60% year-on-year, reaching 40 GW and 67 GW, respectively.
Photovoltaic storage leads current growth, but project delays are prominent
Data shows that the current electricity expansion in the U.S. is primarily driven by green energy. The Goldman Sachs report points out that over 90% of the 32 GW of new capacity added in the first nine months of this year comes from photovoltaic and battery storage.
This progress has already reached 54% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast for 2025. Considering that the end of the year is typically a peak installation period, the outlook for achieving the annual target is optimistic.
Despite the strong growth momentum, challenges at the project execution level cannot be ignored. The report emphasizes that the delay rate for renewable energy projects "remains high and exceeds historical averages." As of September, approximately 36.5% of planned photovoltaic projects and 38.6% of planned wind projects are facing delays of more than six months.
In contrast, the delay rate for natural gas projects is only 11.2%, demonstrating its relative advantage in project execution. Additionally, the pace of coal capacity exit is slower than expected, with only about 2 GW exiting this year, far below Goldman Sachs' forecast of 13 GW.
Long-term planning shift: Surge in natural gas and storage projects
Looking ahead, the timeline for the commissioning of electricity projects in the U.S. shows a clear divergence. Analysis indicates that the vast majority of renewable energy projects currently under construction and awaiting approval are planned to be connected to the grid between 2026 and 2027. For instance, the planned photovoltaic projects in these two years account for 94% and 99% of Goldman Sachs' forecasted new capacity, respectively.
However, after 2028, the project reserves for renewable energy sharply decline. Instead, there is a concentration of natural gas projects being launched. Goldman Sachs speculates that this may be related to the expiration of policies such as tax credits.
The report shows that approximately 65% of planned natural gas projects are expected to be commissioned between 2028 and 2030. Notably, the planned natural gas projects for just the year 2028 are equivalent to 103% of Goldman Sachs' forecast for new natural gas capacity that year, indicating that the market is positioning itself to meet the long-term demand for stable electricity supply. Meanwhile, the planned capacity for storage projects has also reached 67 GW, with growth momentum parallel to that of natural gas.
Key bottleneck: Labor shortage may become the biggest constraint
The report clearly warns that the labor shortage is a core constraint to achieving electricity growth targets Goldman Sachs estimates that to meet electricity demand by 2030, the U.S. electricity and grid industry needs to add over 500,000 jobs, with about 300,000 in manufacturing, construction, and operations, and another 207,000 in the transmission and distribution sector.
Garrett Golding from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank pointed out that 30% of electricians in the U.S. are nearing retirement age, and it takes 3-5 years to train a skilled technician.
A survey by the Associated General Contractors of America also shows that the labor shortage has become the second-largest cause of project delays, only behind government approval delays. This bottleneck could severely impact project execution and drive up labor costs.
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