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Likes ReceivedUS stock live trading-20250824: Right-side signal appears, preparing to increase positions
Summary:
This week, the S&P 500 rose 0.27%, while my actual portfolio value fell 1.26%.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has risen 9.95%, while my actual portfolio value has risen 19.01% (starting value of 1.60, current value of 1.91).
Trades:
Liquidated CEP, bought an equivalent amount of Bitcoin ETF.
Sold 9% BIL, bought an equivalent amount of Hermès.
Sold 20% BIL, bought an equivalent amount of NVIDIA.
Holdings:
NVIDIA 20.9%, Apple 20.4%, Bitcoin ETF 25.2%, Hermès 9.0%, BIL 7.8%, TLT 16.9%.
Numbers are applied, and positions below 1% are generally not recorded.
Review:
This week, three trades were executed.
1. CEP → Bitcoin ETF
Recently, Ethereum and its related stocks have been performing well, while Bitcoin-related stocks have been underperforming, with technical indicators breaking support levels, triggering stop-loss conditions, so I exited the position.
The momentum doesn’t feel right, so I decided to avoid trading Bitcoin-related stocks for now and shifted the entire position to the Bitcoin ETF, which has been consolidating for a while, waiting for the next wave.
This position has already hit the upper limit for crypto exposure—25%—so I won’t add more, though I might adjust, such as switching to an Ethereum ETF. If I can’t beat it, I might join it... But I have no faith in it, hesitating as it rose from 3000 to 4700 while Bitcoin stayed at 118000. I’ll never mock Ethereum again T-T.
2. Bought Hermès
This trade was previewed last week. Hermès’ stock price recently crashed, but after reviewing the information, I think the issue isn’t too serious—just cyclical weakness. The odds of a rebound here are high, and even the long-term risk-reward is decent, so I bought some as planned.
Of course, it’s not purely technical. I’ve also re-added its valuation to my table. It’s currently in a reasonable range—not cheap, but not expensive either. Historically, Hermès’ stock has rarely traded below fair value, so I took the plunge.
It’s the kind of stock that’s likely to outperform BIL but won’t moon. Either way, I’ve never lost money trading it before, so I hope this time is the same.
3. Bought NVIDIA
The first two trades were pre-set plans, executed on Monday, but the last one was a Friday addition.
The main reason was that Powell suddenly turned dovish, the money printer fired up, and the right-side signal for U.S. stocks was confirmed. Holding too much Treasury at this point would likely underperform, so I just went for 20% in NVIDIA, the leader, especially after it dipped last week.
But this trade was impulsive and might not be held long. Over the weekend, I re-evaluated the Magnificent 7’s valuations. Except for Tesla, which is dream-fueled and unquantifiable, the other six are all in reasonable valuation territory—not cheap at all. This isn’t a great entry point for tech giants.
Smaller tech stocks will likely outperform the Magnificent 7 from here, but I don’t know enough about them. I’ll keep looking next week and welcome reader recommendations—I’m not keen on heavy NVIDIA exposure right now.
Even after this week’s big buys, I still have ~25% in Treasuries. If I find better targets, I’ll switch. Holding too much bonds hurts returns during a right-side move. After getting beaten in U.S. stocks and feasting in A-shares, my A-share returns have now surpassed my U.S. portfolio—what a twist...
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Finally, I’ve added a new stock to the valuation table: Viomi Technology.
This wasn’t my find—a reader recommended it. It’s a Xiaomi supplier, an OEM.
The company’s a market cap of $250M, but its cash + factories alone are worth $270M, not to mention this year’s $140M net profit and potential future businesses that could double profits in three years.
In other words, the current valuation seems severely undervalued. While there’s uncertainty, at worst, it’s a bargain—it can’t be worth this little. If no better options emerge, I’ll buy some next week.
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Finally, the valuation table (all in USD): Crypto stocks are a mess—avoid for now.
Notes (must read):
1. The buy points, fair prices, and sell points above are calculated using my own methods—no universal standard, nor are they absolute or guaranteed. They’re just aids for judging current prices.
2. If a point has two values, the lower is the floor and the higher is the ceiling—which one I use depends on my subjective view and knowledge of the company. No universal standard.
3. Blue/red highlights are personal alerts—stocks near buy/sell zones that need attention, but don’t mean I’ll definitely act.
4. Numbers in the table may adjust as I reassess company fundamentals. Don’t treat them as long-term references or answers.
5. This table is for my own records—not investment advice. Don’t ask me what to buy—the answer is don’t.
6. If you hold any of these, feel free to comment and point out my mistakes—let’s learn and profit together.$Hermès(HESAY.US) $Viomi Tech(VIOT.US) $Bitwise Bitcoin ETF(BITB.US)
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