[Zhenzhuo Institution Perspective] Fed officials debate interest rate cut path, Stock Connect sees single-day inflow of HKD 12.7 billion

Market Commentary

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, officials have been making statements. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan said that current interest rates are too high and explained the need for significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market. This is Milan's first policy speech since being appointed as a Federal Reserve Governor by Donald Trump. In his speech, he elaborated on why the neutral interest rate, which "neither stimulates nor restrains the economy," has declined. Milan suggested that the neutral rate, which may have been overestimated in the past, has recently declined due to the impact of tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies. He said this means interest rates should be significantly lowered to avoid harming the economy.

On the other hand, Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said she remains highly concerned about inflation and that officials should remain cautious when cutting rates to prevent the economy from overheating. She pointed out that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for more than four consecutive years, and it may take several more years to return to the central bank's target level.

Southbound Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 12.7 billion on Monday, with the Tracker Fund (02800.HK) having the highest net inflow of HKD 2.86 billion, followed by Alibaba (09988.HK). In contrast, Meituan (03690.HK) recorded the largest net outflow of HKD 385 million.

(Source: KGI Securities)