Minglue Technology-W, peak valuation of $2.6 billion! China's leading data intelligence application company—(02718.HK) October 2025 IPO analysis

$MININGLAMP-W(02718.HK)

Sponsor: China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong ) Securities Limited   

Offer Price: HK$141.00 fixed price

Fundraising Amount: HK$1.018 billion

Total Market Cap: HK$20.357 billion

Board Lot Size  40

Minimum Subscription Fee   HK$5,696.88

Offer Period: October 23, 2025 – October 28, 2025

Grey Market Trading Time: October 31, 2025

Listing Date: November 3, 2025 (Monday)

Total Offer Shares: 7.219 million shares

International Placement: 6.49708 million shares, ~90.00% 

Public Offering: 0.72192 million shares, ~10.00%

Allocation Mechanism  Mechanism B

Interest Accrual Days: 2 days

Stabilizing Agent  CICC

Issue Ratio  5.00%

P/E Ratio: 4028.57

Company Profile:

Minglue Technology is a leading data intelligence application software company in China, providing data intelligence products and solutions covering marketing and operational intelligence, involving online and offline scenarios, committed to leveraging large models, industry-specific knowledge and multimodal data to transform enterprises' marketing and operational strategy design and decision-making processes.

In terms of marketing intelligence, the company mainly charges customers based on: (i) the amount of media placement by customers, (ii) usage metrics such as exposure and click-through rates, and/or (iii) cost-plus method, accounting for the cost of providing services plus a reasonable profit. Products include the Second Needle System, private domain tools based on the Tencent ecosystem, and Gold Data.

In terms of operational intelligence, it is an intelligent system that provides various functions and features, aiming to achieve end-to-end intelligent operations through deep digitization and automation of service processes for three key elements of store operations and management: people, goods, and locations.

In terms of industry solutions, it provides customized AI solutions for clients in industries such as finance, manufacturing, and rail transit, leveraging knowledge graphs to centralize and analyze multi-source data, revealing hidden patterns in the data and improving decision-making.

As of June 30, 2025, the company had 2,322 patents and 596 patent applications, and has received over 460 domestic and international awards. Among them, the company has 1,296 invention patents covering core areas such as data intelligence, enterprise knowledge graphs, and data privacy.

For the three years ended December 31, 2024, and the first six months of 2024 and 2025:

Minglue Technology's revenue was approximately RMB 1.269 billion, RMB 1.462 billion, RMB 1.381 billion, RMB 565 million, and RMB 644 million, with a year-on-year increase of +13.93% in the first six months of 2025;

Gross profit was approximately RMB 676 million, RMB 733 million, RMB 713 million, RMB 286 million, and RMB 360 million, with a year-on-year increase of +25.86% in the first six months of 2025;

R&D expenses were approximately RMB -751 million, RMB -481 million, RMB -353 million, RMB -174 million, and RMB -150 million, with a year-on-year decrease of -13.33% in the first six months of 2025;

Net profit was approximately RMB 1.638 billion, RMB 318 million, RMB 8 million, RMB -99 million, and RMB -204 million, with a year-on-year increase of +106.67% in the first six months of 2025;

Gross margin was approximately 53.24%, 50.11%, 51.59%, 50.63%, and 55.94%;

R&D expense ratio was approximately 59.16%, 32.88%, 25.56%, 30.72%, and 23.37%;

Net profit margin was approximately 129.02%, 21.78%, 0.58%, -17.46%, and -31.67%.

Source: LiveReport Big Data

As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash on hand of RMB 361 million and operating cash flow of RMB 64 million.

II. Cornerstone Investors

There are 7 cornerstone investors, subscribing for 44.90% of the offering, mainly including:

1. Tencent (via Huang River Investment Limited)

As the largest shareholder of Minglue Technology (holding 26.96% pre-listing), Tencent participated in the cornerstone subscription through its wholly-owned subsidiary Huang River Investment Limited, further strengthening the synergy between the two parties in the field of data intelligence. Tencent not only provides Minglue Technology with resource support in cloud computing and advertising ecosystems, but its investment itself also signals to the market its recognition of the company's long-term value.

2. Jingtai Holdings (via QuantumPharm Limited)

As a global leader in AI-driven pharmaceutical R&D, the participation of its wholly-owned subsidiary QuantumPharm reflects cross-industry tech companies' confidence in Minglue Technology's AI technology implementation capabilities. The two parties may collaborate in areas such as medical big data analysis and cross-industry AI solutions.

3. GFH Financial Group B.S.C.

This Bahrain-based international asset management company, with assets under management exceeding $25 billion, represents Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds' strategic positioning in China's data intelligence sector. GFH's global resource network may help Minglue Technology expand into overseas markets.

4. Hundreds Capital

As an investment institution focused on the technology sector, Hundreds Capital's participation may be related to its layout in AI and enterprise services. The institution has invested in multiple unicorn companies, and its professional judgment provides endorsement for Minglue Technology's valuation.

5. Treasure-stone Investment Group Limited

This Hong Kong-based investment group mainly focuses on the technology and consumer sectors in Greater China. Its investment may be based on optimism about Minglue Technology's commercialization prospects in marketing intelligence and AI Agent fields.

6. Individual investors Guo Minfang and Bao Lina, two high-net-worth individuals, reflect the diversified confidence of the capital market in Minglue Technology. Ms. Guo Minfang has participated in early-stage investments in several technology companies, while Ms. Bao Lina has extensive experience in the fintech sector, and their personal resources may bring additional support to the company.

Bao Lina, as a cornerstone investor, also disclosed her 100% owned BVI investment company, which has $35 million in investments.

There are a total of 9 underwriters.

Sponsor's Historical Performance:

China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited

2. Subscription Rate and New Share Analysis

(From AIPO)

Currently, the margin financing has been oversubscribed by 0.84 times. Anyway, there is no clawback mechanism now, so even if it's oversubscribed by 1,000 times or even 10,000 times, it doesn't matter.

Subscription Rate Analysis

In terms of the one-lot winning rate, no matter how many times the margin financing is oversubscribed, Minglue Technology's public offering this time only accounts for 10%, with no clawback space. Based on an estimated participation of 200,000 people, the one-lot winning rate is 1%.

The corresponding principal and financing amounts for each tier in Group A are shown in the following table:

Group A tail requires HK$430,000 in principal, while Group B head requires subscription funds of HK$5.7 million. The corresponding principal and financing amounts for each tier in Group B are shown in the following table:

According to the prospectus, based on the offer price of HK$141.00, the total listing expenses disclosed are approximately HK$116 million, and the fundraising amount is approximately HK$1.008 billion, accounting for about 11.49%. The expenses are considered average compared to the fundraising amount.

Should you subscribe to this stock? Let me analyze it below:

Minglue Technology's shareholder background can be described as a "capital feast." Tencent-affiliated capital holds a total of 26.96% through entities such as Image Frame Investment and Grace Gate Holding, making it the largest shareholder. This strategic investment not only provides financial support to Minglue Technology but also strengthens the competitiveness of its marketing intelligence business through Tencent's ecosystem resources in areas such as advertising and cloud computing. For example, the Second Needle System, as Minglue Technology's core product, has become an important engine for its revenue growth through deep collaboration with Tencent Advertising.

In addition to Tencent, institutions such as Sequoia China (7.52%), Temasek (4.35%), and Kuaishou (2.48%) are also among the top ten shareholders. Sequoia China has continued to increase its investment since the early rounds, and its industry resources complement Minglue Technology's technology implementation capabilities; Temasek, as a sovereign wealth fund, provides endorsement for the company's global strategy; Kuaishou's investment reflects the strategic demand of short video platforms for AI marketing tools. Notably, global advertising giant WPP holds a 2.11% stake through its subsidiary fund, providing Minglue Technology with a direct channel to expand its international client base.

Since its establishment, Minglue Technology has undergone multiple rounds of financing. The highest valuation was during the E round, when Minglue Technology completed a $210 million E1 round in February 2020, with a pre-money valuation of $2.362 billion; in September of the same year, it completed a $16.91 million E2 round, and in November, it completed a $132 million E2 round, with a pre-money valuation of $2.9 billion and a per-share cost of $23.9695.

In October 2024, Minglue Technology completed a $30 million F-1 round with a pre-money valuation of $500 million and a per-share cost of $3.9286; during the same period, it completed a $50.87 million F-2 round with a pre-money valuation of $750 million and a per-share cost of $5.4388; in March 2024, it completed a $29.93 million F-3 round with a pre-money valuation of $1.5 billion and a per-share cost of $10.8775.

Risk Warnings:

Valuation Adjustment Pressure: The current valuation of $1.5 billion, although halved from its peak, still represents a PS (price-to-sales) ratio of 10.9x based on 2024 revenue of RMB 1.381 billion, higher than the industry average (around 8x).

R&D Investment Contraction: From 2022 to 2024, R&D expenses decreased from RMB 751 million to RMB 353 million, a drop of over 50%, which may affect long-term technological competitiveness. In comparison, SenseTime's R&D investment remained above RMB 1.5 billion during the same period.

Customer Structure Risk: In 2024, the total number of customers decreased by 39 to 1,841, the retention rate dropped by 6.1 percentage points to 87%, and revenue from the top five customers decreased by 7.98% year-on-year, highlighting the problem of over-reliance on key customers.

Minglue Technology's IPO process is a microcosm of the 博弈 between capital rationalization and technology commercialization. Its advantages lie in Tencent's ecosystem empowerment, industry data barriers, and breakthroughs in AI Agent technology, while the risks are concentrated in valuation bubbles, R&D contraction, and customer attrition. For investors, it is necessary to find a balance between technological foresight and financial stability. It is recommended to participate with a "light position trial + long-term tracking" strategy, focusing on key indicators such as customer retention rate, R&D investment, and the proportion of AI product revenue (targeting over 30%) in the second half of 2025. If the company can establish a 规模化 advantage in the AI Agent 赛道， its valuation is expected to 迎来修复行情;

The pre-IPO valuation was $2.9 billion, approximately HK$22.6 billion. This IPO has a total market cap of HK$20.357 billion, an offer price of HK$141.00 fixed price, and a fundraising amount of HK$1.018 billion. There's no need to pretend anymore—the fundamentals are good, the international placement is 火爆， and it's 抢疯了. Let's 摊牌了—go 抢吧！

Anyway, Tencent-backed stocks are still performing well so far.