《大行》摩通首予太平洋航运增持评级 目标价 3.2 元

JP Morgan initiated coverage on PACIFIC BASIN (02343.HK) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 3.2. The bank believes that U.S. tariffs are driving early shipments, which may put pressure on TCE prices in the second half of this year. However, with the restocking cycle restarting and the construction industry boosting demand for minor bulk cargo, demand is expected to recover by 2026. Additionally, capacity growth has slowed, with the global fleet expansion rate decreasing to about 3%, and the aging fleet is leading to an increase in the scrapping of old ships.

The bank also believes that the group's positioning in the small vessel sector is defensive, as its diverse cargo types, flexible port access, and routes enhance profitability visibility due to stable fuel costs. Furthermore, bulk shipping is least affected by disruptions in the Red Sea, with only about 3% of dry bulk passing through this area before 2024, significantly lower than the 10% for crude oil and 15% for refined oil. The risks in the Strait of Hormuz mainly involve tankers, making the group's earnings less sensitive.

The bank indicated that it is more optimistic about PACIFIC BASIN in the dry bulk and tanker sectors compared to COSCO SHIPPING Energy (01138.HK), as the former is less impacted by geopolitical shocks, has stable capital expenditures, and has limited exposure to the risks of U.S. Section 301 tariffs